Predictions For 2021 Covid: The prediction no one wants to hear: experts say the pandemic will continue into 2021. Most experts don’t think the vaccine will be ready until next year. Why we must lower our expectations regarding the coronavirus.
The most promising vaccine projects are taking place simultaneously in China, Europe, and the US, but only the most optimistic experts hope there will be a list for worldwide distribution this year.
If, as most experts believe, an effective vaccine isn’t ready until well into 2021, the entire world must prepare to coexist with the coronavirus for the next year or more. That is why a report in Bloomberg magazine indicates that this next phase of the crisis may require us to reset our expectations and change our behavior.
In the opinion of health experts, success will not be defined as returning to life as it was carried out in 2019. Rather, it is about buying time and limiting the destructive capacity of an expanding pandemic, which has the capacity of causing the global death of more than one million people according to estimates, until there are tools to effectively treat and immunize against the virus.
“People are tired. They mistakenly feel that the complications are going away, “says Cameron Wolfe, infectious disease physician and associate professor of medicine at Duke University.” We’re going to have to find a way to live with this, “he added.
But it is not all bad news. In the first half of the year, governments around the world resorted to emergency measures, such as forced business closures, mandatory isolation rules, and bans on large gatherings. The movements slowed infection, saved lives, and gave leaders, in many cases, time to store medical equipment and supplies.
However, that progress came at the cost of an economic downturn, rising unemployment, and billions of dollars in fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Governments are likely to be reluctant to resort to new quarantines in any situation other than a catastrophe.
“I understand that there is a perception of the need to balance these economic considerations,” says Ada Adimora, an epidemiologist and professor of medicine in infectious diseases at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine. “But as we open up society, you are not really working to control the threat of the virus.”
The ability to coexist with SARS-CoV-2, as the virus is known, will increasingly depend on how people assess risks and make decisions. “No activity can be done without the risk of coronavirus,” says Amesh Adalja, a professor at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore. “It is the risk that people believe is worth taking,” she remarks.
For now, the virus shows no signs of stopping its spread. As of early May, the daily count of new confirmed cases was approximately 88,000; there are now 176,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Some experts say the global death toll will exceed one million.
“It will be over a million,” said Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California. “I would not be surprised if by 2022 we would reach a couple million or more, knowing that there are many people who are vulnerable,” he said.